World Perspectives
feed-grains livestock

China Hog Guessing Game

With China importing over 44 percent of the world’s traded pork and at least 13 percent of its traded corn, knowing the size of the hog herd is critical to knowing supply and demand. The USDA/FAS attaché in China has posted a number closer to the official Chinese number, but USDA in Washington has a much smaller calculation. Rabobank’s latest number splits the difference. Rabobank says the herd is 10 to 15 percent larger than a year ago after experiencing 3 – 5 percent monthly declines since December due to a relatively smaller resurgence in Africa Swine Fever (ASF). The accuracy of estimates is not made any easier by Chinese policy pronouncements seemingly contradicted by domestic prices. Soymeal prices have softe...

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livestock

Livestock Industry Margins

Beef packer margins reversed sharply lower last week, swinging back into negative territory after six straight weeks of positive returns. Margins fell $145/head to –$75 as fed cattle prices rebounded $7/cwt (live basis), while the Choice cutout slipped nearly $7/cwt. The rapid compression...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Downtrend Dominance; Wheat Hits New Lows; Soy Falls on Crush Numbers

Each year, the Chinese zodiac calendar features one animal to mark and typify the coming 365 days. If that process were applied to CBOT trade, Tuesday would have been the “day of the bear”, with all major grain markets ending in the red. The only specific trigger was the bearish NOP...

soy-oilseeds wheat

China Market Analysis

Beans to Storage China is carrying out its annual purge of stored soybeans, selling them at around a half million tons per week over two months at auction. The amount of market discount depends more on quality, which is better than a few years ago when the need for stock rotation was newly appr...

livestock

Livestock Industry Margins

Beef packer margins reversed sharply lower last week, swinging back into negative territory after six straight weeks of positive returns. Margins fell $145/head to –$75 as fed cattle prices rebounded $7/cwt (live basis), while the Choice cutout slipped nearly $7/cwt. The rapid compression...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Downtrend Dominance; Wheat Hits New Lows; Soy Falls on Crush Numbers

Each year, the Chinese zodiac calendar features one animal to mark and typify the coming 365 days. If that process were applied to CBOT trade, Tuesday would have been the “day of the bear”, with all major grain markets ending in the red. The only specific trigger was the bearish NOP...

soy-oilseeds wheat

China Market Analysis

Beans to Storage China is carrying out its annual purge of stored soybeans, selling them at around a half million tons per week over two months at auction. The amount of market discount depends more on quality, which is better than a few years ago when the need for stock rotation was newly appr...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.365/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.095/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close.  Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6275/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close.  Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $302.4/short ton, down $1...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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