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Cocoa Market Update: Prices Rise as Stocks Fall

At the end of July 2024, WPI published an article looking at the drivers of the cocoa market’s massive rally in 2023 and 2024 and that offered an outlook for MY 2024/25. This article offers a brief update on market conditions and developments that have occurred in the two months since our last analysis.   Short-Run Dynamics ICE cocoa futures have rallied sharply this week with the March contract up $669/MT amid tighter global stockpiles, currency dynamics, and West African cocoa production. ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in U.S. ports have been trending lower for the past 15 months and hit a 15-year low on Tuesday at 1.998 million bags. London cocoa futures also added to their gains this week when the British pounds slipp...

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Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis

Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria is reported to be the main destination for Russia’s shipments of Ukraine grain from occupied regions. Egypt had been the main destination, but it has now stopped buying grain from occupied areas. Syria and Ukraine plan...

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War Impacts

Commodity markets were mixed today, while Wall Street traded higher after President Trump said the Iranians still want to negotiate after he closed the Strait of Hormuz. The result is baffling to some, but the market reflects investor expectations about future corporate earnings and growth rath...

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CFTC COT Report Analysis

Friday’s CFTC report showed funds paring back their net long position across the major ag futures contracts, ending a ten-week streak of net buying. Funds sold 62,000 contracts (6.4 percent) to their all-ags net long position last week with selling in corn, soybeans, and CBOT wheat respon...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis

Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria is reported to be the main destination for Russia’s shipments of Ukraine grain from occupied regions. Egypt had been the main destination, but it has now stopped buying grain from occupied areas. Syria and Ukraine plan...

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Commodity markets were mixed today, while Wall Street traded higher after President Trump said the Iranians still want to negotiate after he closed the Strait of Hormuz. The result is baffling to some, but the market reflects investor expectations about future corporate earnings and growth rath...

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Inflation Ramps Up on Energy and Food Away from Home

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) today, showing that it rose 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, month over month, after being up 0.3 percent in February, and rose 3.3 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted.  Energy was the...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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