World Perspectives

Cost of Holiday Early Closures

It is Christmas Eve and U.S. commodity futures markets close 75 minutes earlier than usual. The cost of this 29 percent reduction in trading time is likely to be a drop in volume of more than 50 percent. Volume also drops in years in which the last trading session is not Christmas Eve (e.g. 2016 and 207), but by only around half as much. While the closes are generally mixed, more often than not over the past five years, the closes have involved small gains in the corn and soybean contracts, and not so much for wheat. The trade is conflicted this year in that the temptation is to book profits and exit riskier positions ahead of a long shutdown in the market. At the same time, there is a continuing bullish bent to the market and getting out...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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