There have been numerous news stories about the expanding financial crises in U.S. agriculture. Many of these stories were instigated by the Trump tariffs against China and the resulting loss of soybean exports due to Chinese counter-tariffs. The real truth is that five consecutive years of world crop production coupled with a very strong U.S. dollar had put agriculture in a bear market long before the China trade conflict. That dispute hasn’t helped the outlook, but it is notable that soybean prices really haven’t collapsed to levels that would be expected given the current U.S. and world supplies situation. As can be seen in the chart below, U.S. net farm income is well off the highs that occurred during the bull market of fi...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.