World Perspectives
farm-inputs

F2F Proxy; Rolling Inflation; Selective View of Tensions

F2F Proxy Greens in Europe have been downplaying the impact on production from reduced use of inputs, arguing that studies showing lower production are flawed. Whether the use of inputs like fertilizer are reduced due to government restrictions on use (F2F) or tempered by record high prices, the impact on output should be the same. The price of fertilizer is up four-fold from 2017 and while the elasticity of demand for this product is relatively small due to the lack of substitutes, it is nonetheless having an adverse impact. Considering high fertilizer costs, farmers in Europe are reportedly looking at their marginal costs and are thinking about reduced plantings. Corn yields in Brazil are predicted to fall based on the tighter supply of...

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feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2625/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3775/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.34/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $305.8/short ton, down $3.4 fr...

House Farm Bill Text Released

Chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, Glenn Thompson (R-Pennsylvania), released the text of the farm bill on Friday. Markup is scheduled for next week. Some key highlights are shown below.  Commodities: Directs reporting on dairy production expenses to ensure that producer costs ar...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2625/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3775/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.34/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $305.8/short ton, down $3.4 fr...

House Farm Bill Text Released

Chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, Glenn Thompson (R-Pennsylvania), released the text of the farm bill on Friday. Markup is scheduled for next week. Some key highlights are shown below.  Commodities: Directs reporting on dairy production expenses to ensure that producer costs ar...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Mixed to Lower on Safety Ahead of the Long Weekend

There was both a lot and not much going on this Friday the 13th in November. The fundamentals are unchanged, but some riskier positions were neutralized and some profits taken ahead of the long weekend, with the federal holiday closing down futures markets on Monday. Volume was generally lower,...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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