World Perspectives

Fama; Cake

Fama Analysis on USDA The Nobel prize just won by Eugene Fama, Lars Peter Hansen and Robert Shiller has an important relationship to the current lack of USDA reporting due to the partial government shutdown. Under Fama's efficient markets theory, financial markets are essentially information markets. In that vein, commodity markets have been somewhat unique relative to equities and bonds in that USDA's reports are perceived as more definitive about supply and demand than the frequent parsing of Census, Treasury, Fed or Labor reports. Because agricultural commodities are seasonal and this is a hiatus period in global crop production, there are worse times than now for USDA to be absent from the market. Nonetheless, one would expect incr...

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Summary of Futures

May 26 Corn closed at $4.4725/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8025/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close.  May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.62/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.1/short ton, up $2.3...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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