World Perspectives

Farm Bill Negotiations to Start Soon

House Agriculture Committee Chairman David Scott (D-Georgia) has indicated that negotiations for the farm bill will start in the very early weeks of 2022. Climate and nutrition programs will be the cornerstone of Scott’s and the Democrat Majority’s draft, but with a tenuous political hold on control of the House of Representatives it is not clear what direction the farm bill might take. The farm bill expires in 2023, and mid-term elections are in 2022.   The conventional wisdom is that the Republicans will take the House, though the elections in about 11 months are an eternity away in political timelines, and anything can happen. The Senate, which is split 50/50, is up for grabs, but there is less consensus on the out...

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Beef packer margins reversed sharply lower last week, swinging back into negative territory after six straight weeks of positive returns. Margins fell $145/head to –$75 as fed cattle prices rebounded $7/cwt (live basis), while the Choice cutout slipped nearly $7/cwt. The rapid compression...

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Market Commentary: Downtrend Dominance; Wheat Hits New Lows; Soy Falls on Crush Numbers

Each year, the Chinese zodiac calendar features one animal to mark and typify the coming 365 days. If that process were applied to CBOT trade, Tuesday would have been the “day of the bear”, with all major grain markets ending in the red. The only specific trigger was the bearish NOP...

softs

Bearish Sugar Prices to Continue Despite Production Increases

The U.S. 2025/26 sugar supply is forecast at 14.119 million short tons, raw value (STRV), down 1,800 STRV from November as the decrease in expected imports of refined organic and specialty sugar, which pays the high tier, out of quota duty, more than offsets the increase in beginning stocks and...

livestock

Livestock Industry Margins

Beef packer margins reversed sharply lower last week, swinging back into negative territory after six straight weeks of positive returns. Margins fell $145/head to –$75 as fed cattle prices rebounded $7/cwt (live basis), while the Choice cutout slipped nearly $7/cwt. The rapid compression...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Downtrend Dominance; Wheat Hits New Lows; Soy Falls on Crush Numbers

Each year, the Chinese zodiac calendar features one animal to mark and typify the coming 365 days. If that process were applied to CBOT trade, Tuesday would have been the “day of the bear”, with all major grain markets ending in the red. The only specific trigger was the bearish NOP...

softs

Bearish Sugar Prices to Continue Despite Production Increases

The U.S. 2025/26 sugar supply is forecast at 14.119 million short tons, raw value (STRV), down 1,800 STRV from November as the decrease in expected imports of refined organic and specialty sugar, which pays the high tier, out of quota duty, more than offsets the increase in beginning stocks and...

soy-oilseeds wheat

China Market Analysis

Beans to Storage China is carrying out its annual purge of stored soybeans, selling them at around a half million tons per week over two months at auction. The amount of market discount depends more on quality, which is better than a few years ago when the need for stock rotation was newly appr...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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