Key Takeaways: 

With the fall calf run now upon us, producers are finally getting a glimpse of what their realized profits will be for 2026. Some producers may have already obtained a strong estimate of 2026 revenues, especially if calves were forward sold in, for example, the mid-summer video auctions, but for most, the last quarter of the year is the litmus test of profitability. Early results from October calf sales indicate U.S. cow-calf producers are likely to see profits just shy of the 2025 records, even on an inflation-adjusted basis. The realized profitability should have a positive impact on heifer retention heading into 2027, and WPI’s models still call for the beef heifer retention rate to increase nearly 4 percent...