USDA released its August food CPI forecast today; the expectation for the rest of the year is range bound with a mid-point of 5.9 percent. The most interesting part of the forecast was the wide range of projections for 2024 – from a drop of 2 percent in the low case scenario to an additional increase of 7.9 percent in the high case scenario. The bottom line is this forecast shows the uncertain economic outlook. 

Recall the July CPI release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed July food inflation year-over-year was 4.9 percent; food at home was up 3.6 percent and food away was up 7.1 percent. USDA’s August forecast shows this year will end with food at home inflation at 5.2 percent (midpoint between 4.4 and 6...