World Perspectives
wheat softs

Fungibility for Food Security

There is speculation that rice prices will increase due a smaller crop in India, the world’s largest exporter, and the impacts of El Niño. That is not currently reflected in futures prices, which have fallen 18 percent from their high at the beginning of the year. India’s rice stocks have declined 8.5 percent from 2022/23 levels, but the government has increased the minimum purchase price and that will incentivize more production. At the same time, global wheat ending stocks are rising, including a 47 percent increase in India’s wheat carryover.  Although rice may carry a preference in Asia, wheat demand has been growing much faster than rice demand. It has nutritional advantages over traditional white rice su...

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feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Waiting for Confirmation or Contradiction

The CBOT was mostly in the red to start the week with the bullishness from Friday’s WASDE report failing to trigger enthusiasm from bulls this week. Corn and soybeans both tried to rally and follow Friday’s bullish action, but quickly triggered farmer/hedge selling and profit taking...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2325/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.25/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4275/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.7/short ton, down $2.9...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Milling Wheat  Global wheat futures all hit new contract lows last week with strong Russian exports (at cheaper prices), larger global production estimates, and few weather risks driving the bearish momentum. Markets managed to pare back those losses, however, by the week’s end and a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Waiting for Confirmation or Contradiction

The CBOT was mostly in the red to start the week with the bullishness from Friday’s WASDE report failing to trigger enthusiasm from bulls this week. Corn and soybeans both tried to rally and follow Friday’s bullish action, but quickly triggered farmer/hedge selling and profit taking...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2325/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.25/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4275/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285.7/short ton, down $2.9...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Milling Wheat  Global wheat futures all hit new contract lows last week with strong Russian exports (at cheaper prices), larger global production estimates, and few weather risks driving the bearish momentum. Markets managed to pare back those losses, however, by the week’s end and a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders embarking on a second straight week of net short selling across the ag space as they slightly expanded a relatively neutral position. The expansion of the short position came mostly from selling in soybeans, soyoil, and SRW wheat, with min...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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