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Geopolitical Trade Substitution

Historically, Canada has been the fourth largest producer of green peas and the largest exporter of the product. Canada’s global market share for the green pea trade was 37.9 percent in 2022, while Russia supplied 13.7 percent. Meanwhile, China is both the largest producer and importer of green peas, taking in more than a quarter of traded supply. However, supply chains are increasingly being realigned according to geopolitics. Canada previously supplied 95 percent of the Chinese import market but two years ago Beijing opened its market to Russian green peas. This past year Russia surpassed Canada in supplying the Middle Kingdom.  In 2023/24, Russia supplied 1.13 MMT or 49.1 percent of the Chinese green pea import market. Canada...

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feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 21 October. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

China Market Analysis

Economy China’s official data and its rhetoric do not always align and while its exports have remained robust, it has not prevented a slump in manufacturing output. Its purchasing managers index (PMI) was below 50 (contraction territory) in November, the eighth straight monthly decline. W...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Snow Falls Across Midwest, Commodities Fall Across CBOT

The U.S. Midwest received heavy snowfall this weekend and as snowflakes drifted lower so – apparently – did CBOT traders’ sentiments. The ag markets were almost entirely on the defensive to start the last month of the year with soyoil being the only major market to see meaning...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 21 October. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

China Market Analysis

Economy China’s official data and its rhetoric do not always align and while its exports have remained robust, it has not prevented a slump in manufacturing output. Its purchasing managers index (PMI) was below 50 (contraction territory) in November, the eighth straight monthly decline. W...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Snow Falls Across Midwest, Commodities Fall Across CBOT

The U.S. Midwest received heavy snowfall this weekend and as snowflakes drifted lower so – apparently – did CBOT traders’ sentiments. The ag markets were almost entirely on the defensive to start the last month of the year with soyoil being the only major market to see meaning...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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