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Geopolitical Trade Substitution

Historically, Canada has been the fourth largest producer of green peas and the largest exporter of the product. Canada’s global market share for the green pea trade was 37.9 percent in 2022, while Russia supplied 13.7 percent. Meanwhile, China is both the largest producer and importer of green peas, taking in more than a quarter of traded supply. However, supply chains are increasingly being realigned according to geopolitics. Canada previously supplied 95 percent of the Chinese import market but two years ago Beijing opened its market to Russian green peas. This past year Russia surpassed Canada in supplying the Middle Kingdom.  In 2023/24, Russia supplied 1.13 MMT or 49.1 percent of the Chinese green pea import market. Canada...

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China Market Analysis

Soybean Auction Falters To make way for recent purchases of U.S.-grown soybeans, Sinograin has been auctioning state-owned reserves of soybeans imported in earlier years. At its second auction, sales fell to 62 percent of the volume offered, versus 77 percent in the first auction. And the avera...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back long positions across the ag space as technical conditions quickly deteriorated for the soy complex and corn. Funds shed nearly 170,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with about 90 percent of that coming from...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

China Market Analysis

Soybean Auction Falters To make way for recent purchases of U.S.-grown soybeans, Sinograin has been auctioning state-owned reserves of soybeans imported in earlier years. At its second auction, sales fell to 62 percent of the volume offered, versus 77 percent in the first auction. And the avera...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back long positions across the ag space as technical conditions quickly deteriorated for the soy complex and corn. Funds shed nearly 170,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with about 90 percent of that coming from...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 2 December. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...

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From WPI Consulting

Weighing in on strategic realignment

WPI’s team was retained by the governing board of a U.S. industry organization to review a decision, reached by vote, to invest significant assets into the development and management of an export trading company. WPI’s team conducted a formal review of this decision and concluded that the current level of market saturation would limit the benefits of the investment. Based on WPI’s analysis and recommended actions, the board subsequently reversed its decision and undertook a strategic planning effort to identify more impactful investments. On behalf of numerous clients, WPI has not only assisted in identifying strategic paths but also advised their implementation.

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