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Geopolitical Trade Substitution

Historically, Canada has been the fourth largest producer of green peas and the largest exporter of the product. Canada’s global market share for the green pea trade was 37.9 percent in 2022, while Russia supplied 13.7 percent. Meanwhile, China is both the largest producer and importer of green peas, taking in more than a quarter of traded supply. However, supply chains are increasingly being realigned according to geopolitics. Canada previously supplied 95 percent of the Chinese import market but two years ago Beijing opened its market to Russian green peas. This past year Russia surpassed Canada in supplying the Middle Kingdom.  In 2023/24, Russia supplied 1.13 MMT or 49.1 percent of the Chinese green pea import market. Canada...

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Market Commentary: Some Bouncing Off the Week’s Lows

Except for soyoil and SRW, the market provided a rebound today for the agricultural commodity markets. Most contracts reflected their overnight closes. Key points for today and the week include the following: New contract lows were printed this week in soybeans, soyoil, SRW, and HRS.  Only...

softs

Cocoa Market Outlook: Futures Overbought but Demand Rationing to Continue

The 2024/25 cocoa market outlook is dominated by production concerns and continuing tightness in global stocks-to-grindings levels. The latter point will likely keep futures and physical prices elevated as the market works to ration demand amid a fourth straight year of weak production from Wes...

Sino-Ag Developments

EconomyLeaders gather this month for the annual Central Economic Work Conference with the view of another sub-par year ahead and the need for bold action to turn the economy around. Recent measures have included lowering the cash reserve requirements at banks so that more money is available for...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Some Bouncing Off the Week’s Lows

Except for soyoil and SRW, the market provided a rebound today for the agricultural commodity markets. Most contracts reflected their overnight closes. Key points for today and the week include the following: New contract lows were printed this week in soybeans, soyoil, SRW, and HRS.  Only...

softs

Cocoa Market Outlook: Futures Overbought but Demand Rationing to Continue

The 2024/25 cocoa market outlook is dominated by production concerns and continuing tightness in global stocks-to-grindings levels. The latter point will likely keep futures and physical prices elevated as the market works to ration demand amid a fourth straight year of weak production from Wes...

Sino-Ag Developments

EconomyLeaders gather this month for the annual Central Economic Work Conference with the view of another sub-par year ahead and the need for bold action to turn the economy around. Recent measures have included lowering the cash reserve requirements at banks so that more money is available for...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The major theme of the latest CFTC report is that funds continued to build length in the corn market on strong export demand and added length to seasonal record-setting long positions in livestock futures. Funds added more than 92,000 contracts to their net corn long, increasing the net positio...

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From WPI Consulting

Illuminating the value of technical research

On behalf of a commodity producer organization, WPI evaluated the outputs from a project that featured a $5 million investment into technical research over multiple years. WPI’s team captured the results of this extensive effort and synthesized them for presentation to the organization’s governing board; among the findings uncovered and presented for the first time was the development of genomic traits proven, via rigorous testing, to provide crop yield advantages of 50 percent or more to U.S. farmers in times of drought. Capturing measurable results from long-term efforts can be challenging. Educating clients on the dynamics of success measurement when quantifiable results are not readily available requires deep client-consultant collaboration and an ability to consider both near- and long-term client aspirations with market/policy dynamics – attributes that WPI brings to every consulting engagement.

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