Heading into next week’s (mercifully) planned USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, a key focus of the markets has been forecasting the agency’s yield numbers.  Over the past five years, USDA has exhibited a tendency to reduce its forecast of the corn and soybean yield, harvested area, and production figures from the September to the November reports. That shows a marked difference from the average change from 2000-2024, in which yields were generally revised higher and by degrees that offset larger cuts to harvested area estimates.    

What is more interesting is looking at the yield trends by major cropping region. The five-year average yield change from September to November is negative for all the reg...