Heading into next week’s (mercifully) planned USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, a key focus of the markets has been forecasting the agency’s yield numbers. Over the past five years, USDA has exhibited a tendency to reduce its forecast of the corn and soybean yield, harvested area, and production figures from the September to the November reports. That shows a marked difference from the average change from 2000-2024, in which yields were generally revised higher and by degrees that offset larger cuts to harvested area estimates.
What is more interesting is looking at the yield trends by major cropping region. The five-year average yield change from September to November is negative for all the reg...
Key Market Insights Geopolitical Limbo: Geopolitical risk remained a key driver across global commodity markets today. President Trump stated that the Iran memorandum of understanding is not yet final and warned that military action could resume if negotiations fail. Both sides continue w...
Key Takeaways: Drought remains a major threat to global agricultural production, particularly in regions with limited rainfall and growing water scarcity. Commercially available drought-tolerant traits in corn, soybeans, and wheat have generally delivered modest yield improvements, limiting th...
Key Takeaways: Peace at last in the Persian Gulf? Over the weekend, the U.S. announced and Iranian officials confirmed a peace agreement, with formal ratification set for Geneva on 19 June. The announcement means the Strait of Hormuz is set to reopen fully and toll-free within 30 days.&n...
