World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Historic Trends in USDA’s November Crop Production Report

Heading into next week’s (mercifully) planned USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, a key focus of the markets has been forecasting the agency’s yield numbers.  Over the past five years, USDA has exhibited a tendency to reduce its forecast of the corn and soybean yield, harvested area, and production figures from the September to the November reports. That shows a marked difference from the average change from 2000-2024, in which yields were generally revised higher and by degrees that offset larger cuts to harvested area estimates.     What is more interesting is looking at the yield trends by major cropping region. The five-year average yield change from September to November is negative for all the reg...

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livestock

Livestock Industry Margins

Beef packer margins deteriorated further last week, extending their move into negative territory after early December’s strong profits. Margins fell another $65/head to –$140 as fed cattle prices held firm while the Choice cutout slipped nearly $2/cwt. The tightening spread reflects...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on Short-Covering and Positive Export Data

The CBOT turned higher on Monday with positive export data from USDA and a healthy dose of bottom-picking and pre-holiday short covering driving the upside action. Corn was the upside leader for the day as export shipments remain strong with foreign buyers and end-users picking up the purchase...

livestock

Cattle on Feed for Dec 2025

USDA reports U.S. Cattle on Feed down 2 percent in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head to total 11.7 million head on December 1, 2025.  Placements in feedlots during November totaled 1.60 million head, 11 percent below 2024.  Marketings of during November totaled 1.52 million...

livestock

Livestock Industry Margins

Beef packer margins deteriorated further last week, extending their move into negative territory after early December’s strong profits. Margins fell another $65/head to –$140 as fed cattle prices held firm while the Choice cutout slipped nearly $2/cwt. The tightening spread reflects...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on Short-Covering and Positive Export Data

The CBOT turned higher on Monday with positive export data from USDA and a healthy dose of bottom-picking and pre-holiday short covering driving the upside action. Corn was the upside leader for the day as export shipments remain strong with foreign buyers and end-users picking up the purchase...

livestock

Cattle on Feed for Dec 2025

USDA reports U.S. Cattle on Feed down 2 percent in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head to total 11.7 million head on December 1, 2025.  Placements in feedlots during November totaled 1.60 million head, 11 percent below 2024.  Marketings of during November totaled 1.52 million...

WTO Gets Trumped; Novel Remains Unusual; Cheese Diversion

WTO Gets Trumped The WTO was thrown out back on 2 April when President Trump announced his reciprocal tariffs. The tariffs totally violated U.S. obligations under the WTO but the signal was clear that the U.S. would no longer be constrained by any agreements at the WTO. Still, the Administratio...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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