World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

Identifying Mispricing in Ag Futures: Corn, Soybeans Offer Opportunity

Readers will likely be familiar with WPI’s work over the past month or so exploring mispricing opportunities in agricultural futures. WPI’s work in this area seeks to identify (for the major agricultural commodities) where along the forward curve current futures prices have the greatest error (mispricing) relative to predicted values. Simultaneously, our work attempts to combine this mispricing with identification of markets that have the greatest odds for a large move in prices. This combination of discovering large, anticipated forecast errors with large predicted volatility have proven successful in back testing in identifying speculative trade and key risk management opportunities.  WPI’s methods for this analysis...

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feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soybeans Surge on China Framework, Trade Deals; Cattle Bull Market Is Over

Trade agreements were the story of the day as the U.S. reached deals with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam and a framework for a U.S.-China agreement that could result in “substantial” purchases of U.S. soybeans. The latter statement came from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessen...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.26/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close.  Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6725/bushel, up $0.255 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $298.2/short ton, up $4.1 from y...

Minority Supplier; Trade “Agreements”

Minority Supplier Following negotiations with his Chinese counterparts over the weekend, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects China to revive substantial purchases of U.S. soybeans and to delay expanding its licensing requirement for rare earths. The Treasury lead claims to und...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soybeans Surge on China Framework, Trade Deals; Cattle Bull Market Is Over

Trade agreements were the story of the day as the U.S. reached deals with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam and a framework for a U.S.-China agreement that could result in “substantial” purchases of U.S. soybeans. The latter statement came from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessen...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.26/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close.  Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6725/bushel, up $0.255 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $298.2/short ton, up $4.1 from y...

Minority Supplier; Trade “Agreements”

Minority Supplier Following negotiations with his Chinese counterparts over the weekend, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects China to revive substantial purchases of U.S. soybeans and to delay expanding its licensing requirement for rare earths. The Treasury lead claims to und...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat The wheat harvest is gaining momentum in northern Argentina, with yields exceeding expectations. In the northwest, yields range from 0.8–1.5 MT/ha, above the five-year regional average of 0.82 MT/ha. In the northeast, current averages near 2.7 MT/ha surpass the previous record from...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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