World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

Identifying Mispricing in Ag Futures: Corn, Soybeans Offer Opportunity

Readers will likely be familiar with WPI’s work over the past month or so exploring mispricing opportunities in agricultural futures. WPI’s work in this area seeks to identify (for the major agricultural commodities) where along the forward curve current futures prices have the greatest error (mispricing) relative to predicted values. Simultaneously, our work attempts to combine this mispricing with identification of markets that have the greatest odds for a large move in prices. This combination of discovering large, anticipated forecast errors with large predicted volatility have proven successful in back testing in identifying speculative trade and key risk management opportunities.  WPI’s methods for this analysis...

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livestock

Livestock Industry Margins

Beef packer margins eased slightly to $119/head, declining $7/head week over week as a modest softening in the cutout combined with a small increase in live cattle prices compressed margins. Despite the weekly pullback, margins remain sharply improved on a monthly basis (+$233/head), supported...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

 May 26 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close.  May 26 Wheat closed at $6.07/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close.  May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5975/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.9/short ton, down $...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Cautious Ahead of Acreage, Stocks Reports

The CBOT took a bit of a breather on Monday as traders waited for the upcoming Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, which the USDA will issue Tuesday at midday. Traders were reluctant to expand risk too much ahead of these two reports, which often change market direction and tone for...

livestock

Livestock Industry Margins

Beef packer margins eased slightly to $119/head, declining $7/head week over week as a modest softening in the cutout combined with a small increase in live cattle prices compressed margins. Despite the weekly pullback, margins remain sharply improved on a monthly basis (+$233/head), supported...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

 May 26 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close.  May 26 Wheat closed at $6.07/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close.  May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5975/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.9/short ton, down $...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Cautious Ahead of Acreage, Stocks Reports

The CBOT took a bit of a breather on Monday as traders waited for the upcoming Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, which the USDA will issue Tuesday at midday. Traders were reluctant to expand risk too much ahead of these two reports, which often change market direction and tone for...

Forlorn or Failure; Fertile or Futile; AI Impacts; Dirty Dozen Disinformation

Forlorn or Failure The spin from the WTO on the organization’s recent MC14 meetings was that a lot of decisions were adopted, progress was made, and while the event “ran out of time,” new commitments on outstanding issues can still be made in Geneva. Director-General Ngozi Oko...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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