While still February, it’s very dry with the drought worsening across much of the U.S. as well as southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan (see the drought monitor maps below).

What prompted yet another look at this was an email from a reliable farmer in northeastern Montana discussing why he will be planting less wheat in 2018. The main point was that his breakeven price (USD/bushel) for spring wheat is now $7.28 with the current new crop price at $5.87. Based on his proven spring wheat yield of 30 bushels/acre, this would result in a loss of more than $40/acre. More importantly to him, it is so dry in his area that a yield of30 bushels/acre is a pipedream without significant spring and summer rain. This farmer’s own data shows th...