The recent rally in soybean prices versus the possible record shorts in corn could encourage late planted acres previously planned for maize to switch over to the oilseed. Notably, 60 percent of the time over the past 15 years, soybean acres counted on 30 June exceeded the surveyed number in the March Prospective Plantings report. Soybean futures are rising now but on an indexed basis they are still the lowest in at least four years.

This gets reflected in cash prices, which are barely above five-year lows.

Basis normally narrows this time of year as stocks tighten ahead of new crop harvesting. U.S. soybean carryover will shrink sharply for the second year in a row and will be the lowest since 2016/17. This tightening in stocks is re...