The noted economist John Kenneth Galbraith famously observed that “the only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable,” which is interesting since he was one of the foremost economic forecasters of his time. His remark could be considered especially applicable to efforts at predicting what may lie ahead for commodity markets. In fact, like other forms of economic forecasting, predicting the future of grain and soy markets as well as the fundamental factors that may drive them is basically glorified guesswork. Quite literally, exchange-traded futures markets for corn, wheat and soybeans are little more than organized frameworks for guessing what prices will be at set periods of time in the future. Gu...
What You Need to Know Today: There has already been a strong run of flash soybean sales announcements in recent weeks, but more than 1.4 MMT reported this morning is an exceptionally large single-day total with major implications for the market. If the sales to China and unknown destinations w...
On Friday, at 6:57 AM, President Donald Trump announced, via a social media post, a 90-day window during which up to 300,000 metric tons of product for ground beef could be imported outside of tariff-rate quotas—a move aimed at bringing down costs for American consumers. This is the secon...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.