Tomorrow, USDA will release two important reports: the monthly Cattle on Feed Report and the quarterly Hogs and Pigs Inventory.   Analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 September at 98 percent of a year ago. The range of estimates was between 97.2 and 98.7 percent. The implied inventory of cattle on feed would be 11.2 million head. WPI’s own estimate is lighter at 11.06 million head, or 97 percent of last year. 

The 1 September inventory in 2020 was the largest on record given the COVID backlog of slaughter capacity earlier in the year. Seasonally, September is the low point for cattle on feed inventories; the number of cattle in feed yards starts to increase in Q4, with...