USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 May at 101.5 percent of a year ago. The range of estimates was extremely tight, coming in between 101.2 and 101.8 percent. The implied inventory of cattle on feed would be 11.9 million head.

Last May, the cattle on feed inventory was the second highest on record so inventories are going to be large, but the real lever is the number of cattle coming in behind these large numbers, especially as cow slaughter is higher than normal. It is a long term bullish scenario for cattle supply and demand per se, but the overall inflationary environment and its impacts on domestic consumer beef demand and demand for...