Tomorrow, USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report. Analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 August at 98 percent of a year ago. The range of estimates was fairly narrow between 97.7 and 98.8 percent. The implied inventory of cattle on feed would be 11.08 million head, which would be the lowest 1 August inventory in four years after the 1 July inventory was at its 10-year low point.  

Seasonally, August and September are low points for cattle on feed inventories; the number of cattle in feed yards starts to increase in Q4, with heavier placements typically starting in September. In 2020, however, there was a record large 1 September inventory (dating back to 1996 when record...