Two key trends bely what’s in store for meat and livestock in late 2021 and early 2022: the prices of feeder pigs and feeder cattle. As we wrote last week, demand for protein remains strong. Moreover, supplies of livestock are tightening, especially downstream to feeders. First, hogs – the relatively more straight-forward situation of the two. There has been a lot of packing capacity added in the past several years, and the herd is contracting. The last quarterly Hogs and Pigs report (WPI’s 24 June coverage here) showed the first drop in the June inventory since 2014.

Since the end of June, packers have bid less aggressively for hogs and the national negotiated price has cooled, but feeder pig prices have remained well...