USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for February will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 98.4 percent of a year ago. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.53 million head.

The total inventory on feed may be surprisingly large given the state of the cattle herd, as there was one fewer slaughter day in January than a year ago, along with a smaller January fed-cattle slaughter and more placements than marketings. Further, there is aggressive placement of beef-on-dairy-bred feeders, and cattle are being kept on feed longer. Thus, total inventory is forecast to be down only 1.5 percent. However, if the pre-report estimates are accurate, this would be a...