Cattle cycles are measured from low point to low point, which means that the current cycle started in 2014, peaked in 2019, and was ongoing in 2023.  

Thus, a key question is: will record cattle prices (so far, and projected by USDA) in 2024 trigger an expansion of the cattle herd and start a new cattle cycle? Looking back at 2023, cattle prices hit records but feed, forage and financial, and fertilizer costs were all higher than typical levels and the beef herd continued its contraction as producer margins did not keep pace with cattle prices. As of 1 January 2024, the U.S. cattle herd dropped to 87.2 million head, the lowest since 1951. Reductions were seen at virtually every level of the cattle supply compared to the beginn...