Modest volumes were traded today, except HRW and Lean Hogs where there was some added play. For the week overall, the bears were in charge with weather and Ukraine the overriding factors. Neither of those influences are definitive. In fact, Russia lowered its export tax on wheat to facilitate sluggish movement. For the week, prices are lower, net long positions in corn increased by 29 percent, but fell 8.5 percent for soybeans.

Ukraine’s wheat crop is down 40 percent this year and McKinsey predicts problems will continue with overall grain production down 35-45 percent from its peak. Then they cited fertilizer shortages to conclude that grain prices will remain high into 2023. This is supported by futures where:

Deferred corn...