The April WASDE report has been described historically as a non-event. Today’s report was bearish, but prices rose for the most part because it merely affirmed what everyone knew – this is a bearish situation. With that already priced into the market, there was nothing to do but some short-covering ahead of the long three-day weekend. Volume for wheat, corn and soybeans was above the five-day average indicating some conviction. Not uneventful, but hardly the whole story yet to be told. There are still many uncertainties. In particular, the final amount of demand destruction and dislocations to be caused by COVID-19. The April WASDE was likely just the first installment in taking consumption demand down and ending stocks u...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.