World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Commentary Speculative selling of corn contracts has recently been emboldened by a composite of analysts and commentators repetitively noting that USDA is likely to report a record corn crop for the United States in the November WASDE report to be released Friday, 8 November. For one reason or another, there seems to be some forgetfulness that record corn crops were produced one third of the time during the prior decade; a decade that includes two drought years. Memory may also be selective to the fact that the average stock-to-use ratio of the record years (2009/10, 2007/08, 2004/05) was 15.2 percent, which is actually a little larger than various commodity analysts are expecting for this Friday's WASDE.An ending stock-to-use ratio of...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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