The April 2019 WASDE was mostly neutral the grains complex but bullish soyoil as USDA’s changes offered few surprises. The CBOT had a weaker tone before the report’s release, largely due to better-than-expected winter wheat conditions and a 2 percent planting progress for corn. That assuaged some weather-related concerns, and traders took away some of the growing weather premium. WPI’s Bob Kohlmeyer covers the WASDE in greater detail (see today’s separate analysis), but some brief highlights are provided here. USDA increased world ending stocks for wheat, corn, and soybeans, a bearish trifecta that would have elicited a larger market response if traders hadn’t (mostly) anticipated the changes. It also increase...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.