The uncertainty over yield and demand continues. The crop output side switches to bearish as improved rains are considered, but how much damage has there already been? Experience suggests not to underestimate crop genetics and the forgiveness they imbue for weather challenges. It has only been briefly a challenging growing season. Demand has generally been good, largely driven by China, it should continue good based on the Phase One commitments, but the siphoning sound is not guaranteed.  There are three things to think about right now:

The trade is not going to gamble much ahead of the 11 September WASDE since that report will have a more concrete basis for its numbers.  

The trade is not going to put itself into...