What could go right? The stock market and commodity futures both started the trading day glumly observing certain fundamentals:
U.S. core inflation in September at 6.6 percent had hit a four-decade high; CPI was at 8.2 percent. It is now sealed that next month the Fed will add another growth suppressing 0.75 percent to the federal funds rate. Even the President is now acknowledging that there could be a “mild” recession as the IMF downgrades the forecast for global economic growth. The dollar is so strong, the yen is at a 32-year low in comparison, further burdening U.S. exports. Not only do high interest rates risk causing a recession but the International Energy Agency warns that the planned OPEC+ output reduction...
Russian Grain Markets: 29 June-3 July 2026 The new marketing season has officially begun in Russia, although bearish sentiment has been concentrated in the southern regions closest to the Black Sea ports, where export demand has been weakest. Delays in grain deliveries to inland elevators have...
What You Need to Know Today: The hot, dry weather forecast continues to drive strength in grain futures with corn and soybeans hitting another day of strong gains. Monday’s Crop Progress and Conditions data were in line with market expectations and showed relatively few concerns for the...
Yesterday we wrote about the Q1 GDP numbers and the June employment reports in an article entitled Real GDP for Q1 Relying on AI Buildout, Held Back by Consumer Spending. That article mentioned that consumer spending had become a drag on GDP. Nonetheless, real GDP in Q1 was revised upward to 2...
