Many stock market experts this week were advising not to start panic selling, but apparently many did. Major stock indices dropped 6-7 percent. Agricultural commodities are typically the worst hurt in trade wars, and yet the results were mixed (see below). The fundamental questions are how far will the trade war go, and how long will it last? It is a game of chicken. Retaliation Impacts Looking at U.S. export dependencies explains much of the market’s reaction. Focusing just on this week’s announced reciprocal tariffs (ignoring steel, aluminum, autos), China is the biggest market for soybeans and beef, and its announced retaliation will hurt. Plus, three-quarters of U.S. soybean exports go to seven markets facing some of the hig...
What You Need to Know Today: Wholesale inflation was flat in July, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) unchanged versus expectations for a 0.2 percent increase. Core PPI rose 0.2 percent, also below expectations. The softer inflation data has reduced the odds of a September interest rate incre...
Key Takeaways: The U.S. sheep industry is contracting. Lamb output and producer participation have declined sharply. Imports now account for most U.S. lamb consumption. Their roughly 70 percent share raises concerns about domestic capacity and resilience. USTR’s referral carries substant...
Yesterday, the USDA released its monthly World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), forecasting tighter beef and pork supplies and growing broiler supplies, resulting in a tighter red meat supply. Broiler production, however, continues to grow and is forecast to be up more than 3 percent. Beef...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.