Berry Marttin at Rabobank notes that agricultural commodity prices have risen 28 percent over the past year and are 40 percent above pre-pandemic levels. Low stocks, ongoing production concerns, expensive inputs and strong consumer demand means that prices are not going to meaningfully decline anytime soon. However, the price increases in 2022 are unlikely to match those of 2021, which is why investors rebalance their portfolios each year. For example, soybeans rose 1 percent in value in 2021 but La Niña will dent supplies in 2022, which has prompted funds to recently double their long positions. Supplies of products like coffee and cocoa may stay tight but December 2022 lean hog futures are priced at a 10.5 percent discount t...
What You Need to Know Today: The corn and soybean markets closed slightly higher in low-volume trade. The wheat market was mixed, with HRW continuing its downward trek on improved moisture. As expected, the bearish cattle on feed report drove down cattle prices and pulled hogs down with it. Mi...
Monday, 25 May is a U.S. holiday, and both the markets and our office will be closed. Please note that the next issue of Ag Perspectives will be published on Tuesday, 26 May. The WPI staff wishes everyone a safe and enjoyable holiday weekend...
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released today. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity amounted to 11.6 million head, 102 percent of last year. Source: USDA, WPI Placements were up, but part of that is attributable to persistent drought c...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.