Berry Marttin at Rabobank notes that agricultural commodity prices have risen 28 percent over the past year and are 40 percent above pre-pandemic levels. Low stocks, ongoing production concerns, expensive inputs and strong consumer demand means that prices are not going to meaningfully decline anytime soon. However, the price increases in 2022 are unlikely to match those of 2021, which is why investors rebalance their portfolios each year. For example, soybeans rose 1 percent in value in 2021 but La Niña will dent supplies in 2022, which has prompted funds to recently double their long positions. Supplies of products like coffee and cocoa may stay tight but December 2022 lean hog futures are priced at a 10.5 percent discount t...
Russian Grain Markets: 29 June-3 July 2026 The new marketing season has officially begun in Russia, although bearish sentiment has been concentrated in the southern regions closest to the Black Sea ports, where export demand has been weakest. Delays in grain deliveries to inland elevators have...
What You Need to Know Today: The hot, dry weather forecast continues to drive strength in grain futures with corn and soybeans hitting another day of strong gains. Monday’s Crop Progress and Conditions data were in line with market expectations and showed relatively few concerns for the...
Yesterday we wrote about the Q1 GDP numbers and the June employment reports in an article entitled Real GDP for Q1 Relying on AI Buildout, Held Back by Consumer Spending. That article mentioned that consumer spending had become a drag on GDP. Nonetheless, real GDP in Q1 was revised upward to 2...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.