Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Tunisia’s grain harvest in 2023 is forecast to drop from 750,000 MT to only 250,000 MT because of drought and the restrictions put on water use. Only about 15 percent of the grain area is irrigated so rainfall is very important. Total grain imports are expected to reach 3.8 MMT. Morocco reportedly revised its import wheat subsidy program so that Black Sea wheat is given a subsidy close to that for European origins. The European subsidy is now only about $1/MT higher than for the Black Sea – it had been about $10/MT higher. Egypt’s strategic wheat reserves are at 2.3 months with the Egypt wheat harvest beginning later in April...
What You Need to Know Today: Oil prices surged today following reports of tanker attacks off the coast of Saudi Arabia by Houthi rebels and renewed U.S. threats to escalate military strikes against Iran, heightening concerns over potential disruptions to Middle East energy supplies. Brent crud...
Key Takeaways: The latest UN data shows solid progress reducing global hunger and food insecurity. The geography of hunger-affected people has shifted substantially, however, and Africa is now the most affected region. To understand why hunger patterns have shifted and what policy option...
Key Takeaways: The situation in the Arab Gulf is little changed this week, which is to say it is a day-by-day – and sometimes hour-by-hour – judgment call as to what is or will happen. There are some vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, but transits are a fraction of what they...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.