The annual USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum will take place next week (22-23 February) in Washington, DC. USDA will issue preliminary unofficial estimates of the U.S. 2018 corn, soybean and wheat crops as part of the 10-year projections. It had released preliminary baselines in November 2017, and there is a wide range of ideas regarding the numbers USDA will use for planted acres, yield, production and 2018/19 carryout.

The 2018 corn planted area should reach 89-90 million acres compared with 90.2 million last year, and the yield should be below last year’s record 176.6 bushels/acre at probably around 174 bushel/acre. This would put production at 14.390 billion bushels versus 14.604 billion bushels last year and carryout for MY 2018...