USDA released its monthly cattle on feed report today showing a total inventory of cattle and calves in feed yards of 11.9 million head on 1 November, which is slightly (25,000 head) below last year. 

All categories were well aligned with the pre-report expectations - another sign that cattle markets are back in balance, except that there was a wide range of placement guesstimates, from 99 percent to 105 percent of last year. With the average guess at 102 percent, however, it’s clear there was a consensus around placements. As we’ve noted before, the pre-report estimate is based on the Olympic average (i.e., eliminating the high and the low before calculating the average) of the various analysts’ forecasts. The ave...