World Perspectives
equities

News Impacts on Commodity Volatility

Researchers from Northwestern, Stanford, and the University of Chicago tracked equity market volatility with articles from eleven different newspapers, and they unsurprisingly found that trade policy had no impact on the market prior to the election of Donald Trump (see NBER Working Paper No. 25720). In fact, the researchers’ Equity Volatility Index tracker indicated that news about government policy in general has become more greatly correlated with market volatility since 2017-18. Yet using this same theory and applying it to agricultural commodity futures prices was not as conclusive. As would be expected, commodity prices rose the day that the USMCA was signed and fell the day that President Trump announced higher duties on impor...

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Market Commentary: Soybeans Surge on China Framework, Trade Deals; Cattle Bull Market Is Over

Trade agreements were the story of the day as the U.S. reached deals with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam and a framework for a U.S.-China agreement that could result in “substantial” purchases of U.S. soybeans. The latter statement came from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessen...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.26/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close.  Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6725/bushel, up $0.255 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $298.2/short ton, up $4.1 from y...

Milei Wins Argentina Election in a Landslide and U.S. Inflation

Yesterday, Argentina held mid-term Congressional elections, with half of the lower House Chamber of Deputies and one-third of the Senate up for election. The winner was Javier Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party and its coalition partners. The La Libertad Avanza party won 40.78 percent of th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soybeans Surge on China Framework, Trade Deals; Cattle Bull Market Is Over

Trade agreements were the story of the day as the U.S. reached deals with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam and a framework for a U.S.-China agreement that could result in “substantial” purchases of U.S. soybeans. The latter statement came from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessen...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.26/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close.  Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6725/bushel, up $0.255 from yesterday's close.  Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $298.2/short ton, up $4.1 from y...

Milei Wins Argentina Election in a Landslide and U.S. Inflation

Yesterday, Argentina held mid-term Congressional elections, with half of the lower House Chamber of Deputies and one-third of the Senate up for election. The winner was Javier Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party and its coalition partners. The La Libertad Avanza party won 40.78 percent of th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures

Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...

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From WPI Consulting

Weighing in on strategic realignment

WPI’s team was retained by the governing board of a U.S. industry organization to review a decision, reached by vote, to invest significant assets into the development and management of an export trading company. WPI’s team conducted a formal review of this decision and concluded that the current level of market saturation would limit the benefits of the investment. Based on WPI’s analysis and recommended actions, the board subsequently reversed its decision and undertook a strategic planning effort to identify more impactful investments. On behalf of numerous clients, WPI has not only assisted in identifying strategic paths but also advised their implementation.

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