World Perspectives

Notable Changes in U.S. Agricultural Trade

In the year of COVID, it is difficult to assign precise reasons for changes in trade flows but following are some observations about U.S. agricultural trade in the year to date:  U.S. exports to India have taken the largest fall, but Bangladesh next door has seen the largest increase.  A drop in exports to Hong Kong could have been exacerbated by civil unrest/freedom protests, and the drop in products to Sub-Saharan Africa might be within a usual range given its smaller volumes.  The increase in exports to China will be claimed as Phase One agreement gains. U.S. agricultural imports from France have taken the greatest beating, likely due to targeting with punitive tariffs.  Reductions in U.S. exp...

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softs

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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