World Perspectives

October Jobs Report Tepid

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the October jobs report this morning.  Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in October (+12,000), and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent.  The pre-report consensus was for an additional 100,000 payroll jobs.  The October report was, excluding 2020, which was the first year of COVID, the smallest gain for any month since early 2019. As WPI noted on 29 October, the September payroll report had some bullish topline numbers, but digging deeper into the report showed some signs of potential concern.   Despite job growth (of 254,000 new jobs), the total hours worked slipped downward in September, to an average of 34.2-hour work week.&...

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Market Commentary: Black Sea Instability and Trade War Influences

There were some jitters this week as Russia and Ukraine stepped up assaults ahead of what may become talks to end the conflict. Alongside concerns about a kinetic war is the uncertainty around the incoming Trump Administration’s aggressions in trade policy.It should be noted that geopolitical u...

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Cattle on Feed Report

USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. Once again, placements surprised to the upside compared to pre-report analysts’ consensus expectations. The total cattle on feed inventory was 11.986 million head, which was slightly above last year’s 11.956 million head. Total feedlot inve...

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Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.255/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6475/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.835/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $289.2/short ton, up $1.5 fro...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Black Sea Instability and Trade War Influences

There were some jitters this week as Russia and Ukraine stepped up assaults ahead of what may become talks to end the conflict. Alongside concerns about a kinetic war is the uncertainty around the incoming Trump Administration’s aggressions in trade policy.It should be noted that geopolitical u...

livestock

Cattle on Feed Report

USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. Once again, placements surprised to the upside compared to pre-report analysts’ consensus expectations. The total cattle on feed inventory was 11.986 million head, which was slightly above last year’s 11.956 million head. Total feedlot inve...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.255/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 25 Wheat closed at $5.6475/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.835/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $289.2/short ton, up $1.5 fro...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

WPI Quarterly Grain Balance Sheet Forecasts

The latest updates and model runs from WPI’s grain balance sheet and pricing forecasts show that corn and wheat are likely to see stronger-than-expected demand that should create upside potential for cash and futures markets. Conversely, soybeans are expected to see weaker demand (particularly...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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