The Market Today’s USDA August WASDE was bullish because it showed fewer soybeans, and the market reacted by shaving almost 1 percent off the November futures contract and making it an almost 2 percent reduction in soybean prices for the week. But after brutal weather in July, it was an expected story. Predicting what numbers USDA would put into its August WASDE was deemed a challenge, and it was. Few in the trade expected a yield increase and, based on the experience of the past several years, there was a good chance that expectations for yield and output would be below the USDA number. Reuter’s analyst Karen Braun did her own survey of readers and found more expecting a number that would be to the higher side of estima...
Key Takeaways: Dry bulk markets are mixed this week with the Capesize sector falling on the demand slump stemming from China’s Golden Week holiday while Panamax and smaller vessel class rates remain firm. The Atlantic’s first hurricane of the season, Hurricane Isaias, intensi...
Yesterday’s momentum is facing a tougher test today. Stocks and most grain markets have pulled back, while higher Treasury yields and a firmer dollar are making buyers work harder to defend the gains. Crude oil has turned lower, easing some immediate energy pressure, but the Fed minutes l...
Key Takeaways: Corn prices will see support in 2026/27 and likely average $5.11/bushel for farm-gate values across the marketing year. Support for corn values comes from an 8 percent year-over-year reduction in supplies that is only partially offset by a 2 percent reduction in total use. Soybe...
Key Takeaways: Global vegetable oil production continues to expand, but the major oils are being driven by very different supply, demand, and trade dynamics. Palm oil faces heavy near-term supply pressure from rising Malaysian inventories, while Indonesia’s B50 mandate and El Niño...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.