The Market Today’s USDA August WASDE was bullish because it showed fewer soybeans, and the market reacted by shaving almost 1 percent off the November futures contract and making it an almost 2 percent reduction in soybean prices for the week. But after brutal weather in July, it was an expected story. Predicting what numbers USDA would put into its August WASDE was deemed a challenge, and it was. Few in the trade expected a yield increase and, based on the experience of the past several years, there was a good chance that expectations for yield and output would be below the USDA number. Reuter’s analyst Karen Braun did her own survey of readers and found more expecting a number that would be to the higher side of estima...
Weather remains the dominant driver of grain markets this time of year, but this week's trade has been a reminder that futures markets are constantly looking ahead. Corn and soybean prices don't simply react to today's weather — they respond to where traders believe production risks will...
As we wrote in last week’s Livestock Round Up, the Administration has announced the Strengthening Processing for U.S. Ranchers (SPUR) program that will provide up to $500 million in payments for small- and medium-sized processors to buy cattle. The Big 4 packers are ineligible, which has...
Key Takeaways: The European Parliament rejected a proposal to classify soyoil as a high ILUC-risk feedstock, preventing a potential phaseout from EU biofuel markets by 2030. Palm oil remains the only major vegetable oil designated as high ILUC-risk in the EU due to concerns over expansion into...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.