Before we get to the 800-pound bear (war), let’s cover some market basics. This would be an extraordinary market situation even without facing down a very bad bear. Brazil’s soybean exports have begun to increase and ANEC says they will hit 11.7 MMT in March. But China is buying a lot of U.S. soybeans in the gut of Brazil’s marketing period for a reason.  The drought in Brazil is enabling harvesting to advance quickly. It is at 44 percent, versus 25 percent this time a year ago. But soybeans in Brazil are grown on the equivalent of 76,000 football fields. Some are in excellent shape, but many this year are average at best. Among the worst is Parána where yields are down 74 percent, and the quality is mostly po...