Most of the current changes are on the supply side of the ledger. This week’s USDA WASDE has come and gone but its effects linger. The agency’s 7 percent increase in U.S. surplus soybeans stocks held more sway than its reduction in global carryover down to 95 MMT from the December estimate of 102 MMT. However, it is the estimates for South America that are the most volatile now.

This is all due to the uncertainties over whether the La Niña is breaking now, or later. There will be some significant rains starting this weekend but the latest question is whether they will rescue southern Brazil or just Argentina? Still to be assessed are qualitative impacts with Famasul saying soybean quality in Mato Grosso do Sul is being...