Putin’s threats to Ukraine’s exports dominated yesterday’s trading, together with concerns about macroeconomic contraction, but both issues were somewhat muted today. The ECB raised interest rates 75 basis points, the largest increase in 23 years, but impressions remold into believing central bank concerns are rooted in economic growth that is fundamentally expansionary. In a similar vein, Ukraine’s grain exports may continue if the White House is correct in asserting that the grain export corridor is not falling apart and is having its intended effect. However, it seems unlikely that Putin is in a generous mood while Ukraine presses a counter-offensive. Ukrainian exports will be reduced no matter what.

Trade esti...