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Perceived Rice Shortage

Rice prices have begun to normalize after spiking recently due to India fearing a shortage and imposing export restrictions. This sparked panic buying and resulted in higher prices. The price of rice early this year was around $602/MT, substantially higher than the historical average of $381/MT, though the latter is in nominal terms. New Delhi is now relaxing its export restrictions. Notably, the price of rice is more correlated to the degree that production matches consumption than it is to the ending stocks available. World rice carryover (blue line in chart below) has been increasing and has been above the historical average going back to 2013. But consumption exceeded production in 2021 and 2022, so price has been rising despite ending...

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