Post-Election Forecast Divided government is coming to Washington, and it has both positives and negatives. Optimists envision the farm bill being completed this month or next with Republicans and Democrats then reaching compromises on big initiatives like infrastructure investment and immigration reform. Pessimists see two embittered sides digging in to reveal the worst about the other ahead of a 2020 general election and the future of Trumpism. The Democrats will investigate and maybe impeach, while Trump pursues regulatory policy and foreign affairs with unilateral privilege.

  Commodity and Trade Studies Canadian researchers Michael Devereux and Gregor Smith investigated (NBER Working Paper No. 25076) countries specializing i...