Following the recent shocks to the grain markets – the Grain Stocks report data and news that soybeans will be on the negotiating table when Presidents Trump and Xi meet next – many are wondering what happens next as far as commodity pricing goes. WPI certainly doesn’t have a crystal ball (if we did, we’d be on a yacht somewhere trying to outspend Bill Gates) but we do have a decent handle on grain market seasonality and how that could influence futures prices. Recently, we’ve done some work exploring seasonal forecasts of the major ag futures that helps formulate our ideas of futures “mispricing” and the probability of large price moves. The tables below identify not only the contracts where...
Last week we reviewed an overlooked measure: agricultural productive capital. Using some Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data, we developed an index of gross capital investment, which showed a major investment surge in agricultural equipment purchases in 2012–2014. Farm investments peak...
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
What You Need to Know Today: Iran has developed an initial draft plan that would prohibit U.S. and Israeli ships from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, increasing concerns over potential disruptions to global energy trade. Although no restrictions have been enacted, the proposal adds anot...
Key Takeaways: Global freight markets are mixed this week with Capesize and Panamax vessel seeing strong performance, primarily on iron ore demand and U.S. Gulf and ECSA grain demand. Handysize and, to a lesser extent, Supramax vessels are trading lower as charterers focus on larger vess...
From WPI Consulting
Weighing in on strategic realignment
WPI’s team was retained by the governing board of a U.S. industry organization to review a decision, reached by vote, to invest significant assets into the development and management of an export trading company. WPI’s team conducted a formal review of this decision and concluded that the current level of market saturation would limit the benefits of the investment. Based on WPI’s analysis and recommended actions, the board subsequently reversed its decision and undertook a strategic planning effort to identify more impactful investments. On behalf of numerous clients, WPI has not only assisted in identifying strategic paths but also advised their implementation.