The Purdue University/CME Group’s Ag Economy Barometer survey of farmers in March showed their economic sentiment dropping 47 points (28 percent), the largest one-month fall ever in the five-year old index. Farmers went through a two-year trade war that saw their exports to their largest market, China, drop but they maintained a positive viewpoint. The COVID-19 crisis has farmers fearful, but should they be? The U.S. and global economies are going into a recession of a yet unknown depth and duration. However, the impact on farm income is unclear. During the eight years out of the last 60 in which the U.S. economy had negative GDP growth, the net cash income earned by farmers fell in half of those years but rose in the other half. The...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.