There is no proxy for the exact current global commodity situation, though it looks familiar at this juncture. Petroleum is arguably being over-produced, as are major crops like corn, wheat and soybeans. Each of the aforementioned are at or near record carryover. In the historical boom/bust cycle of commodities – something must and will change. Oil prices peaked in the 1970’s at the same time inflation pushed up the value of gold, and then notably collapsed. In July 1973, an ounce of gold could buy 33 barrels of oil. The perceived shortage affected producers of lots of different commodities, causing overinvestment, consequently over-production and ultimately a collapse in values. By January 1974, that same ounce would buy...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.