The U.S. hard red winter wheat crop is on the verge of a total collapse for several reasons, including:

As much as 40 percent of the entire HRW region of the southern Plains hasn’t had meaningful (in some areas zero) precipitation in six months. Fall crop stands were planted in very dry soil conditions. Emergence is sparse, and root development is poor. Temperatures collapsed to below zero on several occasions as far south as Oklahoma, and there was no snow cover to protect the crop. It has been warm and windy across most of the southern Plains for the past month. Most of the crop broke dormancy earlier than normal, which is not good when it occurs under such conditions.

Crop condition ratings reflect these issues with 64 per...