World Perspectives

Shutdown Exports; Killing the Messenger; Checking Out

Shutdown Exports The U.S. government will likely shut down this weekend because some Republicans are trying to leverage more budget discipline and other goals. The overall impact on the economy of a government shutdown is less than the clickbait media is trying to convey, but it does have odd impacts. First, the whole government doesn’t close, just the parts considered non-essential. Monitoring imports for compliance with laws is considered law enforcement and so it is essential. However, agencies monitoring exports are not considered essential and will stop working, causing some exports to stop. This will worsen the trade deficit at some level but it is an incongruent application of what is law enforcement and what is not. &nbs...

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Trump Announces Farm Bailout

President Trump announced a total of $12 billion in funding for an ag agriculture bailout program yesterday. The funds will come from tariff revenue collected from the new tariffs.   The package includes $11 billion in one-time payments to crop farmers through a new USDA program, the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 21 October. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Technical Factors, SA Weather and Exports Sink CBOT

The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with traders reluctant to add bullish risk ahead of the USDA’s WASDE report on Tuesday. Too, technical weakness rapidly enveloping the soy complex spooked traders and prompted a more cautious approach. Favorable weather in Brazil, slow soybean s...

Trump Announces Farm Bailout

President Trump announced a total of $12 billion in funding for an ag agriculture bailout program yesterday. The funds will come from tariff revenue collected from the new tariffs.   The package includes $11 billion in one-time payments to crop farmers through a new USDA program, the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 21 October. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Technical Factors, SA Weather and Exports Sink CBOT

The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with traders reluctant to add bullish risk ahead of the USDA’s WASDE report on Tuesday. Too, technical weakness rapidly enveloping the soy complex spooked traders and prompted a more cautious approach. Favorable weather in Brazil, slow soybean s...

Federal Reserve Meeting and Hearing This Week

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on Wednesday to decide what to do about short-term interest rates. The Federal Funds Futures market puts the chance of a rate cut at about 90 percent following cuts in September and October. That meeting will also be when the Fed publishes a ne...

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From WPI Consulting

Infrastructure investment due diligence

On behalf of a Canadian oilseed processer WPI's team provided market analysis, econometric modeling and financial due diligence in support of a $24 million-dollar investment in a Ukrainian crush plant. Consistent with WPI's findings, local production to supply the plant and the facility's output have expanded exponentially since the investment. WPI has conducted parallel work on behalf of U.S., South American and European clients, both private and public, in the agri-food space.

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