Corn and wheat options are bullishly positioned following last week’s news of a potential $50-billion agreement between the U.S. and China. Soybean traders are, apparently, waiting for the market to prove that this will result in higher 2018/19 shipments and the options IV smile curve remains neutrally positioned. Live cattle options are showing interesting patterns that suggest continued rally potential may be limited. For background on the methodology used in this analysis, check out this article (you should also read our Risk Disclaimer). Again, the goal of this weekly publication is to give you a quick view of how the market perceives price risk over the near term. We also include the previously published charts, so yo...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.