This seemed to be the week that many wanted to talk about how much more corn and less soybeans farmers will plant in 2019 because of the drop in soybean prices and lack of any resolution to the U.S./China trade issues. Guesses ranged from a swap as little as 2 million acres to one as high as 5-6 million acres. There are several problems with throwing out random acreage guesses this early, though, including the following:

The 2018 corn and soybean harvests are not even finished yet. The 2019 planting season is still six to seven months away. Growing seasons in Argentina and Brazil have barely started. Farmers are making money growing soybeans even at today’s prices because yields have been so good. Planting costs for soybeans ar...