World Perspectives
softs

Sugar Volatility

It has been a volatile year for global sugar prices. They hit 27.95 cents/pound on 6 November 2023 – the highest since 1980. They fell 30 percent to 19.69 cents/pound in May and now are running around 20.26 cents/pound.   It is difficult to draw a complete supply/demand imbalance as the rationale. Global sugar production has been expanding by 1.21 percent per year, but over the same period, global ending stocks have declined by 1.46 percent per year. Yet human consumption has only been increasing by 0.57 percent per year. It would be easy to blame biofuels except the change in biofuels demand is not that different than the change from human demand. The area sown to both sugar beets and sugarcane has been relatively static a...

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Sow and Cattle Slaughter Dynamics

HOGS The USDA is releasing weekly slaughter data that was unavailable through the government shutdown. On average, through mid-November, sow slaughter has been around 57,400 head per week, which is about 3,400 head, or 5.6 percent lower than the weekly average of about 60,800 head per week in 2...

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Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.  Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3775/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close.  Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $318.7/short ton, down $1.7 f...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

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The CME and traders recovered from a data center problem that halted overnight trading but it was the holiday interrupted week that sent trading volumes sharply lower on Friday. The day started with another flash sale of soybeans to China, evidencing that Beijing is committed to its agreement w...

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Sow and Cattle Slaughter Dynamics

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Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.  Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3775/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close.  Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $318.7/short ton, down $1.7 f...

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Outlook for Cow Numbers Remains Limited

This year’s volatility in beef and cattle prices – particularly in the past two months – has heightened the industry’s interest in what the U.S. cattle herd will look like next year. The border closure with Mexico has certainly shrank cattle-on-feed inventories while str...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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